10 factors that could change economies and markets forever
Insights

10 factors that could change economies and markets forever

The Covid-19 crisis has challenged individuals, families, companies, governments and investment markets around the world. It is an experience that could fundamentally reshape consumer and corporate behaviour as well as financial markets. With that in mind, here are the 10 resulting trends to emerge from the Covid-19 crisis that I believe will change economies and markets forever.

PDF

10 factors that could change economies & markets forever

Peak globalisation

Both in terms of consumption and supply chains, countries will start to think more about where “stuff” comes from, as well as their overreliance on certain countries. This is a clear challenge to businesses to diversify supply chains. There could also be an outpouring of support for small local businesses as consumers move away from the established brands of before.

Cash to card accelerates

As more people are forced to shift from offline to online shopping, and with physical stores in many areas no longer accepting cash for hygiene purposes, the shift from cash to card payments could accelerate.

Health and hygiene

Rules and regulations will step up, particularly in China where pressure will grow on the country to formalise its food industry, given the source of the virus outbreaks.

Advance of the medical community

People will be surprised by the rapid progress, rooted in the genetics community, of arresting the disease and how quickly we get results from clinical trials. The genome of the disease was mapped in mid-January, the protein-binding mechanism was identified two weeks ago, the virus was replicated in a Canadian lab one week ago, and Moderna, a US biotech company, has been testing a vaccine for two weeks. That is stunningly fast relative to “the old days”, where this would have taken years and not weeks to test. People may be underestimating the evolution of science and its impact. If we soon see promise for arresting the disease earlier than expected, an upside surprise is on the cards.

Smarter working becomes more accepted

With companies forced to enable working from home, this could become a more acceptable way of working. This has implications for the likes of cloud investment, with an accelerated shift away from legacy IT infrastructure.

Attack on big tech eases as it is now seen as a utility

What is clear from this period of isolation is the heavy reliance on technology platforms including social media. Although nearterm advertising income may be hit for online platforms such as Google Search, YouTube and Facebook/Instagram, longer term they will benefit from stronger user growth and rising engagement. People who may have left the platforms over privacy concerns may well now return, while governments may ease off on their attacks given the key role tech firms have played in this crisis in supporting communities.

Online consumption grows

Whether for groceries, education or broader retail, online consumption has grown, with a larger user base now more comfortable consuming these services. What started out of necessity for many, may perhaps become the norm. You will also see further acceleration of online investment from traditional retailers and services.

An acceleration of key tech trends

There has already been a rapid growth in AI factories, which employ data-driven algorithms for automated decision making rather than labour-intensive processes reliant on face-to-face communication. They are well suited for a world of less human interaction which, as mentioned above, could further accelerate investment into public clouds.

The rise of the “green” agenda

With countries seeing the benefits of cleaner air and waterways (canals in Venice have cleared markedly with schools of fish now visible), could there be a desire to retain this? Boosted by fiscal stimulus, we might see a greater push of the green agenda and rising investment in renewable energy, electric vehicle infrastructure etc.

The rise of moral capitalism

Do companies have a fundamental reset and look more towards their purpose, ie their impact on environment and customer, community, employees and the supply chain? Amid the backdrop of rising social inequality in Western markets there is already growing scrutiny around companies’ use of buybacks to boost share prices at the expense of investment and balance sheets. But in a post-Covid-19 world might this scrutiny accelerate? On the consumer side there may be a fundamental reset of what we value in life, as we have effectively had our freedom taken from us. Suddenly “things” become less relevant whereas experiences, health/fitness and social engagement move up the consumer agenda.

PDF

10 factors that could change economies & markets forever
20 April 2020
Pauline Grange
Pauline Grange
Portfolio Manager, Global Equities
Share article
Share on linkedin
Share on email
Key topics
Related topics
Listen on Stitcher badge
Share article
Share on linkedin
Share on email
Key topics
Related topics

PDF

10 factors that could change economies and markets forever

Important Information

The research and analysis included on this website has been produced by Columbia Threadneedle Investments for its own investment management activities, may have been acted upon prior to publication and is made available here incidentally. Any opinions expressed are made as at the date of publication but are subject to change without notice and should not be seen as investment advice. Information obtained from external sources is believed to be reliable but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed.

Related Insights

28 March 2024

The Good, the Bad and the UK Stock Market

After an exceptional 2022 the UK stock market reverted to type, underperforming in 2023. With money continuing to disappear from the market, two potential catalysts for change have emerged.
Read time - 5 min
22 March 2024

Harry Waight

Portfolio Manager

Simon Haines

Portfolio Manager

Japan: we’re more convinced than ever

Investors are increasingly turning their attention to Japan. We spent two weeks there and met dozens of companies. But which businesses look best placed?
Watch time - 6 min
20 March 2024

Krishan Selva

Client Portfolio Manager

Lin Jing Leong

Senior Sovereign Analyst, Emerging Market Asia

China: bottom-up opportunity as the macro picture slowly improves

While the top-down story has challenges, the notion that China is ‘uninvestable’ is in our view misinformed. We believe company-specific opportunities can be found by looking at trade, value for money and capital return.
Read time - 5 min
28 March 2024

The Good, the Bad and the UK Stock Market

After an exceptional 2022 the UK stock market reverted to type, underperforming in 2023. With money continuing to disappear from the market, two potential catalysts for change have emerged.
Read time - 5 min
26 March 2024

Fixed Income Desk

In Credit - Weekly Snapshot

In Credit Weekly Snapshot – March 2024

Our fixed income team provide their weekly snapshot of market events.
Read time - 5 min
26 March 2024

Ebele Conroy

Investment Analyst, Global Research

Joe Horrocks-Taylor

Senior Associate, Analyst, Responsible Investment

Green machines: the future of transport

The transportation sector has a significant impact on global emissions, but technology innovations, policy changes and shifting behaviours can reduce this. How are the different modes progressing?
Read time - 5 min
true
true

Important Information

The research and analysis included on this website has been produced by Columbia Threadneedle Investments for its own investment management activities, may have been acted upon prior to publication and is made available here incidentally. Any opinions expressed are made as at the date of publication but are subject to change without notice and should not be seen as investment advice. Information obtained from external sources is believed to be reliable but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed.

You may also like

Investment approach

Teamwork defines us and is fundamental to our investment approach, which is structured to facilitate the generation, assessment and implementation of good, strong investment ideas for our portfolios.

Funds and Prices

Columbia Threadneedle Investments has a comprehensive range of investment funds catering for a broad range of objectives.

Investment Capabilities

We offer a broad range of actively managed investment strategies and solutions covering global, regional and domestic markets and asset classes.